Primary Energy: Renewable Fuels

Wind, solar, and biomass energy are modeled explicitly in the FeliX model. Investment in and development of these energy sources is calibrated to the results of IIASA's Global Energy Assessment (2012) for RCP 6.0. As shown below, future development of renewable energies--especially solar & biomass--shows strong dependence on population growth. In the case of biomass, this dependence has important consequences for land use change: specifically, forest degradation.

Annual primary energy supply (in EJ) generated from wind, solar, and biomass for the period [2000-2100]. The shaded ranges for each energy stream indicate the effects of high and low population estimates. Projections are consistent with IIASA's Global Energy Assessment for RCP 6.0.

Annual primary energy supply (in EJ) generated from wind, solar, and biomass for the period [2000-2100]. The shaded ranges for each energy stream indicate the effects of high and low population estimates. Projections are consistent with IIASA's Global Energy Assessment for RCP 6.0.


Primary Energy: Supply

Total energy demand, shown below as the black dashed line, is based on per capita demand (tied to GDP) and scaled to BAU population projections. This coupling is calibrated to data from Key World Energy Statistics (2013), a product of the International Energy Agency, plotted below in grey. 

Total annual primary energy demand in EJ/year and supply in the BAU scenario. The colored numbers at right list the production from each source in 2100, while the grey numbers above the demand curve indicate supply as a fraction of demand. Historical data from the IEA is plotted in grey.

Total annual primary energy demand in EJ/year and supply in the BAU scenario. The colored numbers at right list the production from each source in 2100, while the grey numbers above the demand curve indicate supply as a fraction of demand. Historical data from the IEA is plotted in grey.

Seen above, total annual energy demand is predicted to grow nearly 90% by the end of the century. During this period, fossil fuels lose market share due to the expansion of renewables, with absolute production levels of oil and gas peaking around 2050 and 2060, respectively.

Each of the seven fuels integrated into the FeliX model is modeled independently, according to anticipated prices and return on investment (fossil fuels discussed here and renewables here). This information is used to calculate emissions from energy generation