Peer-reviewed publications using the FeliX model:
B. Walsh, P. Ciais, I. A. Janssens, J. Peñuelas, K. Riahi, F. Rydzak, D. P. van Vuuren, and M. Obersteiner. Pathways for Balancing CO2 Emissions and Sinks. Nature Communications 8, 14856 doi: 10.1038/ncomms14856 (2017).
ABSTRACT: In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.
- Supplementary information in support of "Pathways for Balancing CO2 Emissions and Sinks"
B. Walsh, F. Rydzak, A. Palazzo, F. Kraxner, M. Herrero, P. M. Schenk, P. Ciais, I. Janssens, J. Peñuelas, A. Niederl-Schmidinger, and M. Obersteiner. New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets. Carbon Balance and Management, 10(1), 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-015-0040-7 (2015).
ABSTRACT: Net carbon sinks capable of avoiding dangerous perturbation of the climate system and preventing ocean acidification have been identified, but they are likely to be limited by resource constraints (Nature 463:747–756, 2010). Land scarcity already creates tension between food security and bioenergy production, and this competition is likely to intensify as populations and the effects of climate change expand. Despite research into microalgae as a next-generation energy source, the land-sparing consequences of alternative sources of livestock feed have been overlooked. Here we use the FeliX model to quantify emissions pathways when microalgae is used as a feedstock to free up to 2 billion hectares of land currently used for pasture and feed crops. Forest plantations established on these areas can conceivably meet 50 % of global primary energy demand, resulting in emissions mitigation from the energy and LULUC sectors of up to 544 ± 107 PgC by 2100. Further emissions reductions from carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology can reduce global atmospheric carbon concentrations close to preindustrial levels by the end of the present century. Though previously thought unattainable, carbon sinks and climate change mitigation of this magnitude are well within the bounds of technological feasibility.
Supplementary information in support of "New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets"
Global Earth Observation - Benefit Estimation: Now, Next, and Emerging (GEO-BENE)
The FeliX model was used in the GEO-BENE project to propagate the findings of the GEO benefits assessment throughout the nine Societal Benefit Areas represented in the model. Access a PDF summarizing Felix in this context here (also available for download here).
Impact of Global Earth Observation – Systemic view across GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas
ABSTRACT: This paper presents the systems approach to measure and analyze the impact of Global Earth Observation across nine GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas. The described methodology framework was used as part of global-wide earth observation assessment conducted during the European Commission sponsored project “Global Earth Observation – Benefit Estimation: Now, Next and Emerging” (GEO-BENE). The applied systems approach enabled integration and aggregation of GEO-BENE project findings. Apart from the assessment framework, there are described specific tools used for the GEO’s impact assessment, i.e. system dynamics model and based on it freely available simulator, as well as some assessment results.
Slides presenting model results:
Walsh, B. "The FeliX Model." Presented 25 August 2016 to the Pardee Center for International Futures at Denver University. (PDF, 9.6 MB)